· 8 min read · 11 views
State Ruler 193-256, Round 1: which capitals hold and which fall?
The invasion rights are in (preliminary) and the War Commander is on its way. On Oct 31, State Ruler Round 1 puts 26 clashes on the map of bracket 193-256, each with the same question: does the capital hold or fall? We put every one of them under the lens with the strength of each state captured on Oct 30, 2026, 00:03 UTC: 19 invaders arrive as clear favorites, 2 battles are open and 2 defenders have a real chance to hold, one of them as the favorite.
The invasion right brings the War Commander: when the countdown ends, it enters the state like a nuke. It does not guarantee the capital, but whoever launches it almost always wins.
Not official
This is our prediction, not an announcement: every clash is decided in the game on Oct 31, and the game has the last word. The invaders are preliminary (S239 vs S254 has none yet), and 10 of them were deduced from the power gap, so their favorite label is partly by construction (marked * in the table). We use the top 6 alliances of each state by power, captured Oct 30, 2026, 00:03 UTC, and the top 5 players read Oct 26 to 28. A state whose 7th alliance and beyond are strong, or whose best players were not read, looks weaker here than it is.
How we read each battle
The invader usually wins: in bracket 193-256 it took the capital in 49 of 56 battles in October 2026. What tilts a clash is how much stronger the invader really is, and raw power alone does not tell the whole story.
Our read puts invader and defender side by side on three signals:
- The top 6, weighed. The combined power of each state's six strongest alliances, as the game ranks them. A top 6 carried by farms is weaker than one where every alliance fights, and our read accounts for it.
- Alliance kills. Combat history: who is used to fighting.
- The best players. A capital is won by its strongest accounts, measured by their effective power.
Each label is the result of weighing the three together, backed by the October history and what we see in the game.
The 26 battles
How to read it: one row per group, one line per clash. The icon is our prediction (see the legend above) and the two figures are each state's top 6, the combined power of its six strongest alliances as the game shows it, farms included. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 00:03 UTC (players Oct 26 to 28). * Invader deduced from the power gap, because neither state had HQs in the Mud yet: its favorite label partly follows from how it was chosen.
| Group matches: prediction, invader → defender, top 6 | |
|---|---|
| G1 | Open callS194 S225169.2G vs 172.9G Invader wins (clear favorite)S241* S203163.2G vs 101.6G |
| G2 | Invader wins (clear favorite)S245* S195178.3G vs 102.5G Invader wins (clear favorite)S231* S230178.5G vs 133.4G |
| G3 | Defender can winS249 S196158.7G vs 163.3G Invader wins (clear favorite)S209 S200141.9G vs 130.6G |
| G4 | Invader wins (clear favorite)S197* S214170.4G vs 105.7G Invader wins (clear favorite)S240* S252134.0G vs 101.7G |
| G5 | Invader wins (clear favorite)S198* S201146.9G vs 105.0G Defender winsS255 S229111.8G vs 141.3G |
| G6 | Open callS199 S227133.8G vs 126.9G Invader wins (clear favorite)S215 S232130.2G vs 103.6G |
| G7 | Invader wins (clear favorite)S216 S205124.0G vs 117.7G Invader wins (clear favorite)S251 S220147.5G vs 92.8G |
| G8 | Invader wins (clear favorite)S206 S247162.1G vs 130.9G Invader wins (narrow edge)S218 S237175.2G vs 168.6G |
| G9 | Invader wins (narrow edge)S207 S211177.3G vs 165.7G Invader wins (clear favorite)S219* S233159.0G vs 55.2G |
| G10 | Invader wins (clear favorite)S210* S234157.3G vs 130.6G Invader wins (clear favorite)S236 S256163.5G vs 128.1G |
| G11 | Invader wins (clear favorite)S244 S212160.0G vs 112.0G No invader yetS239 vs S254127.9G vs 125.9G |
| G12 | Invader wins (clear favorite)S217* S243167.8G vs 121.1G Invader wins (clear favorite)S221* S22394.5G vs 72.3G |
| G13 | Invader wins (clear favorite)S248 S242149.3G vs 124.1G Invader wins (clear favorite)S253 S250166.0G vs 99.2G |
Enjoying the analysis?
HΞXHQ is free and made by one player. If posts like this one help you, support us so we can keep delivering more and better content like this.
The battles to watch
The 6 clashes where the capital can still go either way, from the defender's best shot to the thinnest invader edges.
S249 invades S196
Defender can win. The invader arrives with less: 158.7G against 163.3G, -33% in alliance kills and -22% in its top 5 players. In October, 4 of 7 invaders with less power than their defender did not take the capital.
S194 invades S225
Open call. The most even battle of the round. S225 has slightly more top 6 power (172.9G vs 169.2G), but S194 answers with +14% in alliance kills and +16% in the strength of its top 5 players. No clear favorite.
S199 invades S227
Open call. S199 has more power (133.8G vs 126.9G, and 11.5G of the top 6 of S227 is a farm), but S227 leads in alliance kills (+19%) and its top 5 players are stronger and have fought far more. Power says invasion, combat says defense.
S239 vs S254
No invader yet. The contest for invasion rights was still too close on Oct 30: no invader yet. On paper it is even: 127.9G against 125.9G in top 6 power, and their top 5 players are within 1%. S254 brings more alliance kills (1.3G vs 1.1G).
S218 invades S237
Invader wins (narrow edge). Two of the strongest states of the bracket: 175.2G against 168.6G. The edge of S218 is small in power (+4%) and larger in its top 5 players (+30%).
S207 invades S211
Invader wins (narrow edge). 177.3G against 165.7G: S207 leads by +7% in power and +46% in alliance kills, while their top 5 players are almost even (+3%).
Who could meet in Round 2?
Round 2 comes on Nov 7, and its pairings follow from Round 1: in each group, the two winners play for the final and the two losers play for third place (that is how every October matchup was drawn). This is not a Round 2 prediction. It only shows who would meet if Round 1 ends as we read it. Where a Round 1 clash is open, both states stay in. Who invades in Round 2 is decided by the invasion rights contest of that week.
Heavyweight pairings. 3 of the possible final matches would bring together two states above 140G each: S245 vs S231, S210 vs S236, S248 vs S253. If Round 1 goes this way, Round 2 promises closer clashes.
| Possible Round 2 pairings | |
|---|---|
| G1 | Final matchS194 or S225 vs S241depends on Round 1 Third place matchS225 or S194 vs S203depends on Round 1 |
| G2 | Final matchS245 vs S231 Third place matchS195 vs S230 |
| G3 | Final matchS196 vs S209depends on Round 1 Third place matchS249 vs S200depends on Round 1 |
| G4 | Final matchS197 vs S240 Third place matchS214 vs S252 |
| G5 | Final matchS198 vs S229 Third place matchS201 vs S255 |
| G6 | Final matchS199 or S227 vs S215depends on Round 1 Third place matchS227 or S199 vs S232depends on Round 1 |
| G7 | Final matchS216 vs S251 Third place matchS205 vs S220 |
| G8 | Final matchS206 vs S218 Third place matchS247 vs S237 |
| G9 | Final matchS207 vs S219 Third place matchS211 vs S233 |
| G10 | Final matchS210 vs S236 Third place matchS234 vs S256 |
| G11 | Final matchS244 vs S239 or S254depends on Round 1 Third place matchS212 vs S254 or S239depends on Round 1 |
| G12 | Final matchS217 vs S221 Third place matchS243 vs S223 |
| G13 | Final matchS248 vs S253 Third place matchS242 vs S250 |
What the data tells us
Round 1 leans to the invaders. 19 of the 25 battles with an invader have a clear favorite, 9 of them with more than 40% extra power.
Farms change the reading. 14 states carry at least one farm in their top 6. S240 shows a top 6 of 134.0G against 101.7G for S252, but two of those six alliances are farms: the real gap is much shorter than the raw numbers suggest.
One defender comes in as the favorite. S229 receives an invader with 111.8G against its 141.3G and less than half its alliance kills (739M vs 1.7G). It is the clearest chance of the round for a capital to hold.
Power is not everything. In S199 vs S227 the invader has more power, but the defender beats it in kills and in its best players. That is the battle where the capital can surprise.
Your turn
Which capital holds when the War Commander lands? Tell us in the comments, and follow every battle live on State Ruler Live. Results come after the battle at State Ruler.
HΞX