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Deep analysis: who rules the 193-256 State Ruler finals?
Round 1 was played on October 3, 2026 and left 14 finals for October 10. We crossed every result with each state's power and kills, captured on October 2, 2026: one half of the bracket qualified more states, the stronger state won every match, and not every final is as close as it looks.
Not official
This is an analysis, not a prediction you can count on. Battles are decided by who shows up, when and how well they coordinate, and the game's developer always has the last word on results.
Power and kills come from each state's top 5 alliances, captured on October 2, 2026. A state whose 6th alliance and beyond are strong looks weaker here than it is. State S239 has no power data and is left out of the power comparisons.
Which half qualified more states
Both halves sent 28 states to Round 1. 193-224 qualified 15 of them for the final and 225-256 qualified 13. It isn't a matter of overall strength: the median power of both halves is practically the same (117.0G and 116.9G), and so is the median of their finalists (130.0G and 130.2G). The difference came from the pairings.
Round 1: power ruled
In the 27 matches with power data on both sides, the stronger state won every single one. Across all 28 matchups, 27 ended in an invasion and only 1 in a defense: S214 held against S212 with 2.4% more power. S229 invaded S203 with just 1.3% more power and took its capital: the only Round 1 win over a rival with more stars (0 against 5). The widest gap was S244 over S208, with 47.8% more power.
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The 14 finals
If power keeps deciding like it did in Round 1, the finals sort themselves by the gap between the two sides. In 4 of them the difference is under 5%; in 5 it is a close 5 to 10%; in the other 5 one side is clearly stronger.
| Group | Final | Stronger | Rival | Gap | Stars | Kills |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | S219 vs S195 | 127.2G | 124.6G | 2.0% | 5★ / 3★ | 2.24G / 1.66G |
| 12 | S217 vs S241 | 134.8G | 131.5G | 2.4% | 5★ / 5★ | 2.20G / 2.30G |
| 6 | S211 vs S209 | 140.3G | 134.6G | 4.1% | 5★ / 5★ | 2.36G / 2.02G |
| 13 | S245 vs S240 | 134.5G | 128.7G | 4.3% | 5★ / 5★ | 2.52G / 2.33G |
| 3 | S196 vs S254 | 130.0G | 122.6G | 5.7% | 5★ / 5★ | 2.19G / 2.10G |
| 9 | S253 vs S206 | 134.1G | 124.6G | 7.1% | 0★ / 5★ | 2.13G / 2.07G |
| 4 | S197 vs S237 | 140.9G | 130.2G | 7.6% | 5★ / 3★ | 2.29G / 2.33G |
| 5 | S210 vs S198 | 129.0G | 117.8G | 8.7% | 5★ / 0★ | 1.99G / 1.66G |
| 8 | S231 vs S205 | 138.4G | 125.7G | 9.2% | 5★ / 0★ | 2.52G / 1.40G |
| 10 | S207 vs S244 | 139.1G | 122.7G | 11.8% | 5★ / 5★ | 2.30G / 2.11G |
| 14 | S236 vs S232 | 130.9G | 114.2G | 12.8% | 5★ / 5★ | 2.28G / 1.59G |
| 1 | S194 vs S248 | 137.7G | 119.3G | 13.3% | 5★ / 0★ | 2.63G / 1.73G |
| 7 | S225 vs S229 | 139.1G | 115.8G | 16.7% | 5★ / 0★ | 2.47G / 1.39G |
| 11 | S218 vs S214 | 136.6G | 104.5G | 23.5% | 5★ / 0★ | 2.72G / 1.10G |
Even: under 5%
S219 vs S195
S219 127.2G · 5★ · 2.24G kills
S195 124.6G · 3★ · 1.66G kills
Group 2, power gap 2.0%. Almost identical power. S219 has the edge in stars and in kills (35% more), the clearest tiebreaker on paper.
S217 vs S241
S217 134.8G · 5★ · 2.20G kills
S241 131.5G · 5★ · 2.30G kills
Group 12, power gap 2.4%. Power favors S217 by a hair; kills favor S241 (5% more). A true coin flip.
S211 vs S209
S211 140.3G · 5★ · 2.36G kills
S209 134.6G · 5★ · 2.02G kills
Group 6, power gap 4.1%. Two 5 star states. S211 leads in power and in kills (17% more), but not by much.
S245 vs S240
S245 134.5G · 5★ · 2.52G kills
S240 128.7G · 5★ · 2.33G kills
Group 13, power gap 4.3%. Both have 5 stars. S245 is slightly ahead in power and in kills (8% more).
Close: 5 to 10%
S196 vs S254
S196 130.0G · 5★ · 2.19G kills
S254 122.6G · 5★ · 2.10G kills
Group 3, power gap 5.7%. S196 is a step ahead in power; kills are almost even (4% more).
S253 vs S206
S253 134.1G · 0★ · 2.13G kills
S206 124.6G · 5★ · 2.07G kills
Group 9, power gap 7.1%. S253 has the power, S206 has the stars (5 against 0). Kills are nearly even.
S197 vs S237
S197 140.9G · 5★ · 2.29G kills
S237 130.2G · 3★ · 2.33G kills
Group 4, power gap 7.6%. S197 has more power, but S237 fights just as much: its kills are slightly higher.
S210 vs S198
S210 129.0G · 5★ · 1.99G kills
S198 117.8G · 0★ · 1.66G kills
Group 5, power gap 8.7%. S210 leads in power, stars and kills (19% more).
S231 vs S205
S231 138.4G · 5★ · 2.52G kills
S205 125.7G · 0★ · 1.40G kills
Group 8, power gap 9.2%. The power gap is moderate, but S231 has 80% more kills than S205.
Comfortable: over 10%
S207 vs S244
S207 139.1G · 5★ · 2.30G kills
S244 122.7G · 5★ · 2.11G kills
Group 10, power gap 11.8%. S207 has clearly more power; kills are closer (9% more).
S236 vs S232
S236 130.9G · 5★ · 2.28G kills
S232 114.2G · 5★ · 1.59G kills
Group 14, power gap 12.8%. S236 leads in power and has 43% more kills.
S194 vs S248
S194 137.7G · 5★ · 2.63G kills
S248 119.3G · 0★ · 1.73G kills
Group 1, power gap 13.3%. S194 has more power, the stars (5 against 0) and 52% more kills.
S225 vs S229
S225 139.1G · 5★ · 2.47G kills
S229 115.8G · 0★ · 1.39G kills
Group 7, power gap 16.7%. S225 is clearly stronger, with 77% more kills. But S229 is the only state that beat a rival with more stars in Round 1.
S218 vs S214
S218 136.6G · 5★ · 2.72G kills
S214 104.5G · 0★ · 1.10G kills
Group 11, power gap 23.5%. The widest gap of the finals: 23.5% more power and about 2.5 times the kills.
Where a surprise could come from
Round 1 had no power upsets: the only surprise, S229 over S203, came from stars, with power practically tied. But these four states have something the numbers above don't fully capture:
S237
7.6% less power than S197, but slightly more kills. If its alliances show up, the gap is small enough to close.
S241
Only 2.4% below S217 in power and ahead in kills. The most balanced final on the board.
S206
7.1% less power than S253, but 5 stars against 0: the experience is on its side.
S229
16.7% below S225, yet it is the only state that beat a rival with more stars in Round 1 (0 against 5), invading it.
Half against half
7 of the 14 finals cross the two halves. Across all finals, 193-224 has the stronger side in 9 and 225-256 in 5: if the favorites hold, the lower half of the bracket takes most of the crowns.
Your turn
Which final do you see as the real coin flip, and who pulls the surprise? Tell us in the comments on this post.
Make your picks
The finals lock on October 10, 2026 at 14:00 UTC (12:00 Apocalypse Time). Members can pick every winner and how they win on the State Ruler page and compete for Intel Points.
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